Although Napoli have proven so hard to beat this season, they will have more than one eye on Sunday's game and could become Lazio's latest victims at the Olimpico.
The hosts' fringe players are accustomed to playing most weeks, having been on Europa League duty since September, while Conte's second string rarely get a look-in.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 44.14%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
-0.25) 
0.3) 
