Both previous head-to-heads here at the Olimpico have ended in draws between Lazio and Porto, but the form of the home side will make them slight favourites.
No team has beaten Lazio here since early March, and despite a great run of results of their own, this is arguably Porto's biggest challenge yet this season.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 36.42%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 36.35% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-0 (10.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lazio in this match.
-0.12) 
0.14) 
