Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 63.37%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Reggiana had a probability of 16.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.62%), while for a Reggiana win it was 0-1 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
0.79) 
-0.41) 
