Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 43.52%. A win for Reggiana had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Reggiana win was 1-0 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SPAL would win this match.