Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 42.55%. A win for Cittadella had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Cittadella win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
