SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 45.94%. A win for Roma had a probability of 29.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Roma |
45.94% ( -2.59) | 25.06% ( 0.61) | 29.01% ( 1.98) |
| Both teams to score 54.87% ( -0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.76% ( -1.38) | 48.24% ( 1.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.61% ( -1.28) | 70.39% ( 1.28) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.97% ( -1.66) | 21.03% ( 1.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.18% ( -2.65) | 53.82% ( 2.65) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.49% ( 0.75) | 30.51% ( -0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.27% ( 0.89) | 66.73% ( -0.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Roma |
| 1-0 @ 10% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.23)2-0 @ 7.8% ( -0.36)3-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.38)3-0 @ 4.05% ( -0.41)3-2 @ 2.86% ( -0.16)4-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.25)4-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.25)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.58% Total : 45.93% | 1-1 @ 11.87% ( 0.32) 0-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.36)2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.05% | 0-1 @ 7.62% ( 0.58) 1-2 @ 7.05% ( 0.33)0-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.43)1-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.19)2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.2)Other @ 3.07% Total : 29.01% |
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