Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 39.65%. A win for Botswana had a probability of 35.38% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Botswana win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
