Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Hamburger SV had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.62%) and 2-0 (5.78%). The likeliest Hamburger SV win was 1-2 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
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