Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 49.15%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 27.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 1-2 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.
-0.04) 
0.12) 
