Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 56.43%. A win for Karlsruher SC had a probability of 22.35% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.99%) and 1-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Karlsruher SC win was 1-2 (5.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.