Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 52.82%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 24.61% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.
-0.01) 
0.03) 
