Mainz certainly head into this fixture as the side possessing the greater quality and better form overall this season, but following four consecutive defeats on the road, we are predicting Bochum to edge them out on Tuesday.
Both sides are tight defensively and score few goals, so as there was on Saturday, we are expecting just the one goal to be enough in a tight encounter.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 34.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.54%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest VfL Bochum win was 2-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that VfL Bochum would win this match.
