Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almere City win with a probability of 40.83%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 35.8% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almere City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.74%) and 2-0 (5.6%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almere City would win this match.
