Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 42.42%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 36.49% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.25%) and 2-3 (4.86%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
