Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 32.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.07%) and 0-2 (5.63%). The likeliest Jong FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.