Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 53.96%. A win for Den Bosch had a probability of 23.58% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Den Bosch win was 1-2 (6.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.