Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 56.11%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 22.17% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.53%) and 0-2 (8.42%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 (5.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
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