Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 49.08%. A win for Roda JC had a probability of 26.69% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Roda JC win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Willem II in this match.
-0.03) 
0.01) 
