SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 51.33%. A win for Arsenal Under-21s had a probability of 27.04% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.6%) and 1-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Arsenal Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Colchester United | Draw | Arsenal Under-21s |
51.33% ( 0.02) | 21.62% ( -0.02) | 27.04% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 65.45% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.35% ( 0.07) | 33.64% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.53% ( 0.08) | 55.46% ( -0.08) |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.53% ( 0.03) | 13.46% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.54% ( 0.06) | 40.46% ( -0.07) |
| Arsenal Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.63% ( 0.03) | 24.37% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.23% ( 0.04) | 58.77% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Colchester United | Draw | Arsenal Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.31% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.6% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 6.58% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.22% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.41% ( -0)3-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.12% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.21% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.25% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 4% Total : 51.33% | 1-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.57% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.28% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 2.07% ( 0)Other @ 0.41% Total : 21.62% | 1-2 @ 6.56% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.63% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.09% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.09% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.09% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0)Other @ 2.68% Total : 27.04% |
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