SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 76.6%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s had a probability of 8.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.83%) and 1-0 (10.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.24%), while for a Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s win it was 0-1 (2.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s |
76.6% ( -0.16) | 15.22% ( 0.07) | 8.17% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 44.57% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.31% ( -0.05) | 39.68% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.96% ( -0.05) | 62.03% ( 0.05) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.37% ( -0.05) | 8.62% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.24% ( -0.12) | 29.75% ( 0.11) |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.77% ( 0.17) | 51.22% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.51% ( 0.11) | 85.49% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers Under-21s |
| 2-0 @ 13.26% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 10.83% ( -0.05)1-0 @ 10.82% 2-1 @ 8.87% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.25% ( 0)4-0 @ 6.64% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 4.44% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.18% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.49% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.8% Total : 76.59% | 1-1 @ 7.24% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.22% | 0-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.81% Total : 8.17% |
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