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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.76%) and 2-0 (5.61%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-2 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Derby County |
40.9% ( -2.34) | 23.37% ( 0.07) | 35.73% ( 2.28) |
| Both teams to score 63.67% ( 0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.07% ( 0.26) | 37.93% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.81% ( 0.27) | 60.19% ( -0.27) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.02% ( -0.89) | 18.98% ( 0.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.48% ( -1.5) | 50.52% ( 1.51) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.58% ( 1.33) | 21.42% ( -1.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.58% ( 2.01) | 54.42% ( -2.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Notts County | Draw | Derby County |
| 2-1 @ 8.65% ( -0.26) 1-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.28)2-0 @ 5.61% ( -0.4)3-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.29)3-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.32)4-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.18)4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.17)Other @ 3.47% Total : 40.9% | 1-1 @ 10.4% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.66% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 4.07% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.36% | 1-2 @ 8.02% ( 0.31) 0-1 @ 6.26% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 4.83% ( 0.32)1-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.31)2-3 @ 3.42% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.25)1-4 @ 1.59% ( 0.18)2-4 @ 1.32% ( 0.11)0-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.74% Total : 35.73% |
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