Having lost just one home league game this season, Stevenage are a tough team to beat at the Lamex Stadium, and we think that they will produce a battling display to hold Derby to a draw in Saturday's encounter. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result
Stevenage	Draw	Derby County
31.88% ( -0.05)	27.38% ( -0)	40.74% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 49%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.55% (

0.01)

56.44% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.55% (

77.45% (

-0.01)

Stevenage Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.31% (

-0.03)

32.68% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.76% (

-0.04)

69.23% (

0.03)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.79% (

0.03)

27.2% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.38% (

0.04)

62.61% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Stevenage 31.88%

Derby County 40.73%

Draw 27.38%

Stevenage	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.56% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.7% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.76% ( -0) Other @ 2.61% Total : 31.88%	1-1 @ 12.94% 0-0 @ 8.89% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.71% ( -0) Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.38%	0-1 @ 11.57% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.43% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.53% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.66% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.04% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.19% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.06% ( 0) Other @ 1.98% Total : 40.73%