Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 21.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
55.29% (![]() | 23.25% (![]() | 21.46% (![]() |
Both teams to score 53.11% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.04% (![]() | 46.96% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.79% (![]() | 69.21% (![]() |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.16% (![]() | 16.84% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.16% (![]() | 46.84% (![]() |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.86% (![]() | 36.13% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.08% (![]() | 72.92% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
1-0 @ 10.83% (![]() 2-1 @ 9.83% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 9.66% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 5.84% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 5.73% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.97% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 2.6% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 2.55% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.32% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 0.93% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 0.91% ( ![]() Other @ 2.11% Total : 55.28% | 1-1 @ 11.03% (![]() 0-0 @ 6.09% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 5% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.01% ( ![]() Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.25% | 0-1 @ 6.19% (![]() 1-2 @ 5.62% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 3.15% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 1.91% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.7% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 1.07% ( ![]() Other @ 1.83% Total : 21.46% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups: