SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 21.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
55.29% ( 0.15) | 23.25% ( -0.06) | 21.46% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 53.11% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.04% ( 0.16) | 46.96% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.79% ( 0.14) | 69.21% ( -0.14) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.16% ( 0.11) | 16.84% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.16% ( 0.19) | 46.84% ( -0.19) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.86% ( 0) | 36.13% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.08% ( 0) | 72.92% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
| 1-0 @ 10.83% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 9.66% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.55% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.11% Total : 55.28% | 1-1 @ 11.03% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.25% | 0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.7% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.83% Total : 21.46% |
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