Following a defeat at the weekend, Derby will be desperate to return to winning ways on Tuesday, and we believe that they will do enough to claim all three points against a Northampton side that has lost three consecutive away games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.76%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 20.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
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