Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 56.98%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 19.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.24%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
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