Northampton can afford to play for a draw in order to guarantee qualification from Group F, while Burton are growing in confidence and could take a point away from Sixfields on Tuesday.
It remains to be seen whether that would be enough to stop Notts County overtaking them, though.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 29.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.01) 
