SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 68.33%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 14.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.37%) and 3-1 (7.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.88%), while for an Aston Villa Under-21s win it was 1-2 (4.02%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portsmouth | Draw | Aston Villa Under-21s |
68.33% ( -0.75) | 17.52% ( 0.15) | 14.15% ( 0.6) |
| Both teams to score 58.32% ( 1.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.93% ( 0.74) | 33.06% ( -0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.2% ( 0.84) | 54.79% ( -0.84) |
| Portsmouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.16% ( 0.02) | 8.83% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.73% ( 0.06) | 30.26% ( -0.06) |
| Aston Villa Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.96% ( 1.31) | 36.03% ( -1.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.19% ( 1.32) | 72.81% ( -1.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portsmouth | Draw | Aston Villa Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.37% ( -0.35)3-1 @ 7.74% ( 0)1-0 @ 7.72% ( -0.29)3-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.27)4-1 @ 4.7% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 4.6% ( -0.16)3-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.14)4-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.07)5-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.04)6-1 @ 0.92% ( 0)6-0 @ 0.9% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.21% Total : 68.33% | 1-1 @ 7.88% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( 0.17)0-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.23% Total : 17.52% | 1-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 3.25% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.19% Total : 14.15% |
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