Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 35.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-0 (9.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colchester United would win this match.