SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 60.28%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.07%) and 1-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-2 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Twente | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
60.28% ( 0.26) | 20.62% ( 0.07) | 19.1% ( -0.33) |
| Both teams to score 58.19% ( -0.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.59% ( -0.84) | 38.4% ( 0.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.3% ( -0.89) | 60.69% ( 0.89) |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.61% ( -0.19) | 12.38% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.75% ( -0.39) | 38.25% ( 0.39) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.42% ( -0.83) | 33.57% ( 0.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.78% ( -0.91) | 70.22% ( 0.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Twente | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.23)1-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.28)3-1 @ 6.89% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 3.3% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.96% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0)Other @ 3.91% Total : 60.28% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.21% Total : 20.62% | 1-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.17% Total : 19.1% |
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