Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 38.17%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 36.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
