SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 33 | 79 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 33 | 43 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 33 | 43 | 71 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 33 | 8 | 47 |
| 8 | NEC | 33 | -13 | 38 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 33 | -15 | 38 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 82.36%. A draw had a probability of 11.3% and a win for NEC had a probability of 6.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 3-1 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.18%), while for a NEC win it was 1-2 (1.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | NEC |
82.36% ( -0.52) | 11.33% ( 0.28) | 6.31% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 50.95% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.19% ( -0.4) | 26.81% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.73% ( -0.51) | 47.27% ( 0.52) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.21% ( -0.15) | 4.79% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 80.66% ( -0.48) | 19.34% ( 0.48) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.51% ( 0.38) | 46.49% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.9% ( 0.29) | 82.1% ( -0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | NEC |
| 3-0 @ 10.42% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 10.28% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 7.99% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 7.93% ( -0.15)2-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.11)1-0 @ 6.77% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 6.07% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 4.82% ( -0.14)5-1 @ 3.69% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.04)6-0 @ 2.44% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.06)5-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)7-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.06)Other @ 4.34% Total : 82.35% | 1-1 @ 5.18% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.91% Total : 11.33% | 1-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 1.7% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.62% Total : 6.31% |
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