SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Fortuna Sittard | 33 | -32 | 32 |
| 17 | Willem II | 33 | -28 | 30 |
| 18 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | -25 | 27 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 33 | 79 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 33 | 43 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 33 | 43 | 71 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 64.97%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 14.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.97%) and 1-2 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.56%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-0 (4.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
14.9% ( -0.09) | 20.13% ( -0.03) | 64.97% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 50.76% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.18% ( -0.05) | 43.82% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.79% ( -0.05) | 66.2% ( 0.04) |
| PEC Zwolle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.15% ( -0.15) | 41.85% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.69% ( -0.13) | 78.31% ( 0.12) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.29% ( 0.01) | 12.71% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.07% ( 0.04) | 38.93% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 1-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 4.16% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.63% Total : 14.9% | 1-1 @ 9.56% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.96% Total : 20.13% | 0-2 @ 11.31% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 10.97% ( 0.03)1-2 @ 9.86% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 7.78% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 6.78% 0-4 @ 4.01% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.5% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.66% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.52% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.44% ( 0)Other @ 3.19% Total : 64.97% |
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