With both PSV and Ajax looking vulnerable in defence in recent weeks, goals are to be expected this weekend. Five of the last six meetings between these two sides have seen at least three goals scored. Another thrilling showdown between arguably the two strongest Dutch sides at present is set to take place, but considering the success that Ajax have recently had over PSV, we can see Ten Hag's men outscoring their opponents and retaining their crown. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.48%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.26%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.

Result
PSV Eindhoven	Draw	Ajax
33.93%	23.58%	42.48%

Both teams to score 62.41%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.61%

39.39%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.27%

61.73%

PSV Eindhoven Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.95%

23.05%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.12%

56.87%

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.1%

18.9%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.61%

50.38%

Score Analysis

PSV Eindhoven 33.93%

Ajax 42.48%

Draw 23.58%

PSV Eindhoven	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 7.82% 1-0 @ 6.39% 2-0 @ 4.69% 3-1 @ 3.82% 3-2 @ 3.19% 3-0 @ 2.29% 4-1 @ 1.4% 4-2 @ 1.17% Other @ 3.16% Total : 33.93%	1-1 @ 10.65% 2-2 @ 6.51% 0-0 @ 4.36% 3-3 @ 1.77% Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.58%	1-2 @ 8.87% 0-1 @ 7.26% 0-2 @ 6.05% 1-3 @ 4.93% 2-3 @ 3.62% 0-3 @ 3.36% 1-4 @ 2.05% 2-4 @ 1.51% 0-4 @ 1.4% Other @ 3.45% Total : 42.48%