SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 49.13%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.26%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | FC Utrecht |
27.67% ( 0.22) | 23.19% ( 0.09) | 49.13% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 60.26% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.29% ( -0.25) | 40.7% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.91% ( -0.26) | 63.09% ( 0.25) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.4% ( 0.03) | 27.59% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.87% ( 0.04) | 63.12% ( -0.04) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.22% ( -0.21) | 16.77% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.28% ( -0.38) | 46.71% ( 0.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 2-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 2.94% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.62% 3-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.87% Total : 27.67% | 1-1 @ 10.63% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.12% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.18% | 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 7.38% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 5.65% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 2.52% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.96% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 0.9% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.3% Total : 49.13% |
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