Waalwijk have made a poor start to the new season and will need to get up and running sooner rather than later. We fancy them to take advantage of Excelsior's defensive porosity and come away with all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RKC Waalwijk win with a probability of 44.16%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.75%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RKC Waalwijk would win this match.

Result
RKC Waalwijk	Draw	SBV Excelsior
44.16% ( 0.16)	23.72% ( -0.3)	32.12% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 61.21% (

1.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.32% (

1.47)

40.67% (

-1.47)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.94% (

1.49)

63.05% (

-1.49)

RKC Waalwijk Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.28% (

0.66)

18.71% (

-0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.92% (

1.1)

50.07% (

-1.1)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.3% (

0.8)

24.7% (

-0.8)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.76% (

1.1)

59.23% (

-1.1)

Score Analysis

RKC Waalwijk 44.16%

SBV Excelsior 32.12%

Draw 23.72%

RKC Waalwijk	Draw	SBV Excelsior
2-1 @ 9.08% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.36) 2-0 @ 6.49% ( -0.16) 3-1 @ 5.07% ( 0.1) 3-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.15) 4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.47% Total : 44.16%	1-1 @ 10.83% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 6.35% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 4.62% ( -0.32) 3-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.72%	1-2 @ 7.57% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.29) 0-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.13) 0-3 @ 2.11% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.05) 2-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.7% Total : 32.12%