SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | RKC Waalwijk | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | FC Utrecht | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | FC Volendam | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 4 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Ajax | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Heerenveen | 4 | 5 | 8 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 63.02%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 17.36%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.21%) and 0-1 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.95%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 2-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Ajax in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ajax.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Ajax |
17.36% ( 0.68) | 19.62% ( 0.69) | 63.02% ( -1.37) |
| Both teams to score 58.36% ( -1.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.39% ( -2.06) | 36.61% ( 2.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.24% ( -2.28) | 58.76% ( 2.29) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.65% ( -0.5) | 34.35% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.94% ( -0.55) | 71.06% ( 0.55) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.9% ( -0.94) | 11.1% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.51% ( -2.11) | 35.49% ( 2.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.35)2-0 @ 2.18% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 1.7% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.75% Total : 17.36% | 1-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.44) 2-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.38)3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.22% Total : 19.62% | 1-2 @ 9.84% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 9.21% ( 0.22)0-1 @ 8.38% ( 0.52)1-3 @ 7.21% ( -0.21)0-3 @ 6.75% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 3.97% ( -0.28)2-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.17)0-4 @ 3.71% ( -0.21)2-4 @ 2.12% ( -0.18)1-5 @ 1.74% ( -0.2)0-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.16)2-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.66% Total : 63.02% |
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