SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Vitesse | 4 | -9 | 1 |
| 17 | Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | -7 | 0 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | RKC Waalwijk | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | FC Utrecht | 4 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Vitesse | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 53.18%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 23.68% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.65%) and 0-2 (8.69%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 (6.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | FC Utrecht |
23.68% ( -1.09) | 23.13% ( -0.65) | 53.18% ( 1.74) |
| Both teams to score 56.4% ( 0.93) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.02% ( 1.8) | 43.98% ( -1.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.63% ( 1.74) | 66.36% ( -1.74) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.55% ( 0.06) | 32.44% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.03% ( 0.06) | 68.96% ( -0.06) |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.49% ( 1.3) | 16.51% ( -1.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.75% ( 2.3) | 46.25% ( -2.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 2-1 @ 6.11% ( -0.2) 1-0 @ 6.03% ( -0.48)2-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.26)3-1 @ 2.29% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.51% Total : 23.68% | 1-1 @ 10.86% ( -0.36) 2-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 5.36% ( -0.43)3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.13% | 1-2 @ 9.78% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.34)0-2 @ 8.69% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 5.87% ( 0.3)0-3 @ 5.22% ( 0.26)2-3 @ 3.31% ( 0.18)1-4 @ 2.64% ( 0.24)0-4 @ 2.35% ( 0.21)2-4 @ 1.49% ( 0.14)1-5 @ 0.95% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.24% Total : 53.18% |
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