SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | FC Volendam | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 17 | Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 6 | -9 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | SBV Excelsior | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 9 | NEC | 7 | 2 | 8 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortuna Sittard in this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
42.36% ( 0.24) | 25.38% ( -1) | 32.25% ( 0.76) |
| Both teams to score 55.45% ( 3.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.77% ( 4.44) | 48.23% ( -4.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.62% ( 3.93) | 70.38% ( -3.93) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.33% ( 2.07) | 22.67% ( -2.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.68% ( 2.98) | 56.32% ( -2.97) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.7% ( 2.73) | 28.3% ( -2.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.98% ( 3.31) | 64.02% ( -3.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 1-0 @ 9.52% ( -1.19) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 7.06% ( -0.42)3-1 @ 4.41% ( 0.33)3-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.79% ( 0.4)4-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.21)4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.2)Other @ 2.21% Total : 42.37% | 1-1 @ 12.01% ( -0.53) 0-0 @ 6.42% ( -1.26)2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.5)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.24)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.37% | 0-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.88) 1-2 @ 7.59% ( 0.24)0-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 3.19% ( 0.33)2-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.37)0-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.17)Other @ 2.73% Total : 32.25% |
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