Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 47.48%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 27.86% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-0 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
