Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 57.72%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 21.74% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.71%) and 1-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (5.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ajax in this match.
