Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 49.74%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 27.22% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 2-1 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
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