Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 53.2%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 23.86% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
