Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shkendija win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for Valmiera had a probability of 28.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shkendija win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Valmiera win was 1-2 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shkendija would win this match.
0.02) 
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