SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shkendija win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for Valmiera had a probability of 28.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shkendija win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Valmiera win was 1-2 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shkendija would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Shkendija | Draw | Valmiera |
48.43% ( 0.02) | 23.14% ( 0.01) | 28.42% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 61.03% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.05% ( -0.04) | 39.95% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.69% ( -0.04) | 62.31% ( 0.04) |
| Shkendija Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.25% ( -0.01) | 16.75% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.33% ( -0.01) | 46.67% ( 0.02) |
| Valmiera Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.31% ( -0.03) | 26.69% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.05% ( -0.05) | 61.95% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shkendija | Draw | Valmiera |
| 2-1 @ 9.43% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.99% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.62% 3-0 @ 4.25% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.71% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.51% 4-0 @ 1.9% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0)Other @ 4.25% Total : 48.44% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.47% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.14% | 1-2 @ 6.97% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.9% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.9% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.07% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.74% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.72% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 2.21% Total : 28.42% |
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