SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swift Hesperange win with a probability of 44.48%. A win for The New Saints had a probability of 32.4% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swift Hesperange win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.03%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest The New Saints win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swift Hesperange would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swift Hesperange | Draw | The New Saints |
44.48% ( -0.68) | 23.13% ( -0.04) | 32.4% ( 0.72) |
| Both teams to score 63.53% ( 0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.31% ( 0.49) | 37.69% ( -0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.07% ( 0.52) | 59.93% ( -0.52) |
| Swift Hesperange Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.61% ( -0.07) | 17.39% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.19% ( -0.13) | 47.81% ( 0.14) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.9% ( 0.65) | 23.1% ( -0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.05% ( 0.94) | 56.95% ( -0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
| Swift Hesperange | Draw | The New Saints |
| 2-1 @ 9.01% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.18)2-0 @ 6.15% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 5.25% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.58% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.05)Other @ 4.07% Total : 44.48% | 1-1 @ 10.29% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.6% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.12% | 1-2 @ 7.54% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 5.89% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.31% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.68% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 3.22% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.07)2-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.11% Total : 32.4% |
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