While winless Mainz have conceded 14 goals in five Bundesliga matches this season, unbeaten Leverkusen have scored 17 goals in five league outings, so we expect Alonso's men to heap more misery on the 05ers by notching another high-scoring victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
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