Marseille may struggle to get into the right headspace for this encounter following the weekend's unsavoury events, and with the absent Payet at the heart of their attacks week in week out, Sampaoli's men are fighting an uphill battle to claim a first continental win of the season.
Galatasaray have produced defensive masterclass after defensive masterclass in Europe this term, and we are backing the group leaders to march to another narrow win as Marseille's draw streak ends in dismal fashion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 38.06%. A win for Galatasaray had a probability of 33.53% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (7.18%). The likeliest Galatasaray win was 1-0 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Galatasaray would win this match.
