With history certainly on their side - Porto have won 35 of 43 European ties after securing a first-leg advantage at home - the visitors should make it through to the last 16.
Lazio are primarily focused on their push for a top four finish in Serie A, and with some selection issues up front they may not be able to finish off a side full of confidence thanks to recent results.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 44.21%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 30.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-0 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
