Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 74.2%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 9.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.62%) and 0-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.47%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (3.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.