Both sides will have dreams of a cup run this season, and with that in mind, we expect this to be a close-fought affair.
Cheltenham have drawn three of their last four away games, and we think that Saturday's encounter will end all square with a replay required to separate the two teams.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 40.11%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
