On home turf, Cambridge will fancy their chances of pulling off another shock – particularly against a Luton side whose priority will now be the Championship playoff race. We think there is a high chance that this tie will go to extra time or even penalties, but we think that the Yellows will be victorious.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 44.78%. A win for Cambridge United had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Cambridge United win was 1-0 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
